Lockdowns failed to reduce deaths in the US:
Total deaths declined more, from previous years, in free states than in lockdown states in
spring 2020
by Colleen Huber, NMD
Peer-reviewed article on PDMJ.org, December 4, 2020
Preprint, June 12, 2020
A control group and an experimental group for a single variable in a scientific experiment are
not often provided by political events. All except six US states instituted lockdowns in the
spring of 2020. This paper compares mortality data from those six states, herein “free states,”
with their immediate neighbors, “locked states,” and with all of the 44 locked states. Five
weeks of mortality data during the gradual easing of lockdown in most US states during the
spring of 2020 show a consistent history among those weeks with regard to the following: Free
states had a lower percentage than locked states of total deaths from all causes in these weeks
in 2020, compared to the same weeks for each of the states in the years 2017 to 2019.
Each free state had fewer deaths in comparison to its own record of recent years. Locked
states averaged more deaths compared to their own records of recent years. This difference
holds for both of the following comparisons: free vs locked states that are immediately
surrounding free states, as well as free states compared to the average results of all locked
states in the US.
US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data from weeks ending May 15, 2020
through June 12, 2020 show consistency over each of those five weeks in the following data.
Five US states: Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota, did not lock down,
and submitted mortality data to the CDC. These states are the control group, herein “free
states” in the mass human experiment of society-wide lockdown in the spring of 2020.
There are other states that have special situations. Wyoming also did not lock down, but the
CDC had not posted complete mortality data for Wyoming until June 10, 2020, so I exclude
Wyoming in most of the following weeks; however, June 12, 2020 data for Wyoming is included
in the June 12, 2020 table (Table 5). Also, Utah and Oklahoma did not impose lockdown at the
state level; however, lockdown was imposed in their most populous jurisdictions, so I group
Utah and Oklahoma with the locked states. USA Today lists states that locked down, opened up
and the dates for each.
That article shows that almost all states locked down during the last 10